A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
